China’s fall, not its rise, is the real global threat

But the Chinese model has its limits, and that has far- reaching consequences for the U.S. and Europe, both of which are increasingly dependent on China. The country’s share of global exports already exceeds 10 percent, larger than that of Japan at its peak in 1986. Barring some miracle, Chinese exporters can’t expand their market share much further without lowering prices and wiping out their own profits, research by economists at the International Monetary Fund suggests.

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