Statistical chimera

India's annual wholesale price inflation has fallen below 7 per cent in July, the first time it has since November 2009. That provides some relief, at least from a narrow statistical standpoint. But there are caveats to this. For one, the 6.87 per cent figure is a provisional estimate subject to revision. In most cases, such revisions tend to be upwards. Indeed, the inflation rate had even earlier – in January, February and March – provisionally dropped below the seven per cent mark, before getting revised upwards by as much as nearly a percentage point in the final estimates.

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