Blaming it on rain

A shortfall in the monsoon rains directly translates into some shortage of agricultural produce in the kharif season, but most spectres that build on this obvious point are based on assumptions that confuse incorrect policies with the vagaries of the weather. Assumptions about the weakening purchasing powers of farmers, the resultant impact on companies that depend significantly on sales in rural India, the effect on government finances, banks’ non-performing assets and on the growth rate of the economy, are predicated on this error.

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