The institutional way

The decline of India’s GDP growth to 6.5 per cent in 2011-12 was a shock. However, scenarists had foreseen this in 2005. Scenarists can sense what many economists cannot because scenarists consider the whole system, and analyse the interplay of all forces within it, including social and political forces, not just economic numbers. But their analysis was not seriously considered then, with Indians basking on stage in international forums, reassured by the BRICS projection of their country’s inevitable rise to a global economic power.

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