A longer slowdown ahead
As we have argued in this column, the persistent bad growth mix since the credit crisis - high fiscal spending at a time when productive private investment has been declining - is at the heart of the challenging macro environment for India. This bad growth mix has been steadily taking down India's potential growth rate (growth at which inflation does not accelerate) and we believe that this is now unsustainable, as evident from the stretched macro stability indicators of a higher current account deficit, persistent high inflation and tighter inter-bank liquidity.
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