Hope vs experience

The setting: India’s annualised economic growth rate has plummeted to six per cent in the final quarter of 2011, inflation is still stubbornly high, the current account deficit in the balance of payments exceeds 3.5 per cent of GDP, external debt is at a record high, the central government’s fiscal deficit in the current year will exceed the budgeted level by at least Rs 1 lakh crore, the aggregate investment rate in 2011-12 is officially estimated to have dropped by four per cent of GDP since 2007-08, the manufacturing sector has slowed to a crawl, mining output has fallen, the disinvestment programme is in disarray, capital markets are jittery and the international economic environment is weak and very uncertain.

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