Recession: At the edge of the precipice

Just how bad is fiscal 2013-14 going to be for the economy? Since the potential outcome has been telegraphed well in advance by all leading indicators, there are no prizes for guessing the answer: terrible. The Reserve Bank of India — usually a more sober and reliable forecaster of economic numbers than the Finance Ministry — has already scaled back its growth prediction to 5 per cent at its last quarterly review, and may well do so again at the next one scheduled for the end of the month.

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