How China's binge will end

The big story of 2014 is the black cloud of debt hanging over China. Debate rages over how this tale will end. Most analysts believe that the Chinese economy will once again expand by more than 7% this year, despite ballooning private sector debts. But the pessimistic minority has history on its side. Only five emerging nations have ever seen a credit boom nearly as big as China's, and all those stories ended very badly. These are powerful precedents.

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