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Poll finds people want leadership change; Rahul Gandhi preferred over Manmohan, Modi over Rahul

K Balakrishnan, LensOnNews
Untitled Document
June 19, 2011

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government, mired as it is in a series of scams, unable to gain control over runaway inflation, on the backfoot in its tussle with Anna Hazare and civil society activists on the Lokpal issue, and facing public revulsion over its brutal crackdown on Baba Ramdev and his supporters, has clearly lost public standing across the nation.

This is evident in the findings of a ‘Mood of the Nation’ poll conducted by LensOnNews which shows that voters are exasperated with the crisis-ridden Manmohan Singh government at the Centre, and are yearning for a change. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of voters want a change of government at the Centre, while only about half that number (32%) want the Manmohan Singh government to continue in office.

The disenchantment against the Centre is significantly higher in urban areas, among the college educated and upper castes. It is ironical that these very same informed voting sections had rooted heavily for the Congress party in 2009 polls giving it an unexpected push in polls and have now turned against it. This finding has ominous portents for the Congress led UPA government which has another three years of term left. Rarely do governments fall from public grace so rapidly and precipitously.

Rahul preferred over PM

The Lens poll also quizzed voters as to who between Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi would make a better prime minister. Interestingly, a higher proportion of voters (45%) think that Rahul Gandhi would make a better PM than Manmohan Singh (34%). Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has lost public esteem as is evident from people’s preference for Rahul over Manmohan across all voting segments, be it urban-rural, male-female, caste and occupational groups.

Among the Congress party’s traditional voting segments of Muslims, scheduled tribes (STs), scheduled tribes (SCs) and labourers, preference for Rahul over Manmohan Singh is overwhelming. Muslims prefer Rahul over Manmohan 69% vs.18%, STs 56% vs. 17%, SCs 50% vs. 34%, labourers 57% vs. 28%, women 49% vs. 24%, and farmers 48% vs. 29%.

Modi preferred over Rahul

Voters were asked as to who between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi would make a better prime minister. Though not the declared official candidates of the rival national parties, the two are widely considered to be leading contenders for the office of the prime minister.

Significantly, a majority of respondents interviewed all over the country (52%) chose Narendra Modi as the preferred PM candidate over Rahul Gandhi trailing at 40%.

Perhaps, owing to the unprecedented drift in governance over the past year, people are looking for a leader with strong governance track record and this is where Modi may have appealed more than the Gandhi scion.

Narendra Modi has a huge lead over Rahul Gandhi among upper castes, OBCs, college educated and urban voters. The ratings are: upper castes (Modi 65%, Rahul 28%); OBCs (Modi 53%, Rahul 39%); college educated (Modi 57%, Rahul 35%) and urban voters (Modi 57%, Rahul 34%). Modi has a tenuous lead of 3% among rural voters (Modi 48%, Rahul 45%)

Voting sections strongly rooting for Narendra Modi are not loyal to any party and vote perceptibly based on performance. It is this ‘swing vote’ that proves decisive in regime changes. It seems the Congress party has lost them for now. Worse, these are opinion building groups and their anti-Congress sentiments could influence, albeit only partially, other less aware voting sections in the reminder of the term of the UPA government thus further driving the Congress fortunes down. In Tamil Nadu also, the anti-DMK sentiment was first evident only among informed groups but later gathered steam across all voting classes resulting in the rout of the DMK in recent state polls.

Rahul Gandhi also enjoys greater support over Narendra Modi among SCs (Rahul 53%, Modi 39%); STs (Rahul 47%, Modi 39%). And as may be expected, Rahul has overwhelming support among Muslims (Rahul 80%, Modi 16%). But all these are traditional and strong Congress support groups and their support isn’t adequate for the Congress party to gain a respectable tally in national elections.

Time to step aside for PM?

That Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s stock has gone down, and Rahul Gandhi is seen as a better alternative, is not exactly a development that would be considered unwelcome from the Congress point of view. Some observers point out that the Congress party may have been following a carefully scripted strategy, since returning to power in 2009, of undermining the position of the Manmohan Singh so as to ease him out of the PM’s seat at an opportune time and install Rahul Gandhi as prime minister before the next elections in 2014. Perversely, therefore, erosion in Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s public standing may be seen by the dynasty enthusiasts in a positive light.

The sorry fiasco the Government has landed itself in after reaching out to Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev, is also not unwelcome as it has undermined not only Manmohan Singh, but also Pranab Mukherjee and P. Chidambaram, the only two senior leaders in the present Cabinet who are ambitious and see themselves as potential successors to Manmohan Singh as prime minister.

A soft coup may well be on the cards therefore sometime soon to get Manmohan Singh to resign as prime minister with the expectation that Rahul Gandhi would take over the reins of the government. Digvijay Singh’s recent comments that Rahul has the qualities to be the prime minister are meant to fuel such an expectation.

The Nehru-Gandhi dynasty may find it very tempting to make Rahul Gandhi prime minister at this time, when the principal opposition party the BJP is in disarray, and none of the political parties, whether in the UPA alliance or among the disparate opposition, wants to precipitate a mid-term election.

Or, if Rahul Gandhi is not yet ready to take up the challenge or shoulder the responsibility directly, it is possible that the Gandhi household may replace Manmohan Singh with another figurehead prime minister. Attacks against Pranab Mukherjee and Chidambaram in the recent weeks are perhaps aimed at transition of power to another figurehead prime minister.

In any event, it seems that the Manmohan Singh’s tenure is coming to an end. The moot questions are how soon and who will replace him.

Equally likely, however, is the possibility that when push comes to shove, not only the PM’s but the Government’s position itself becomes untenable, and as has happened several times before, that the nation finds itself facing premature elections to the Lok Sabha, a denouement that no one wants.

The LensOnNews Poll was carried out among a representative sample of about 3800 voters across the country, in 40 representative parliamentary constituencies in 14 states, on a wide range of issues concerning the state of national affairs and leadership preferences of voters. The poll was conducted between June 12 and 16, and the findings carry a margin of error of 4 per cent.

K. Balakrishnan is Editor, LensOnNews and was formerly Research Editor, The Times of India.
E-mail : balakrishnan@lensonnews.com

Showing 45 comments on this article
Aman Aggarwal says:
June 19, 2011
Yes,Rahul will make a better prime minister
MUSLIM BHAGAWAT says:
June 19, 2011
A crisis is at once an opportunity and a threat. It is now for the Prime Minister to figure out as to what to make of his current troubles. The ever increasing number of corruption scams, with the Maran telecom scam being the latest to hit the headlines, had already exacted a heavy toll on the image of the Manmohan Singh Government. Now, anti- corruption public protests by the civil society activists led by Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev have effectively paralyzed the Government. The impression was unmistakable. It is a non- performing government unable to prevent its members from looting the public exchequer. Adding to the woes of the Government is the close monitoring of the investigations into some of the scams by the higher judiciary. The UPA- I Government had most brazenly ensured that the Bofors bribe- taker Ottavio Quattorrocchi got off scot free, with a senior law officer flying to London to defreeze his bank account so that the Italian conman could keep the bribe money from the howitzer deal. But thanks to the altered circumstances, the UPA- II Government seems unable to ensure bail for the 2- G scam accused and the DMK patriarch M.Karunanidhi’s daughter, Kanimozhi.Karunanidhi can complain about the contrasting treatment meted out to Quattorrocchi and Kanimozhi in equally highprofile corruption scams. et, the Government is helpless. It can do precious little to help itself, much less help someone else in a very difficult situation indeed. However, the Prime Minister would be making a grave mistake if he were to submit to the line being canvassed by some Congressmen that he should confront his critics head- on. Such an approach can only land the Government in further trouble. Instead, Singh should seize the current crisis to cleanse the Aegean stables of the Government. Having been in the saddle for over seven years, Singh has nothing to lose if he began to assert the prime ministerial authority to do the right thing by the people rather than by the Congressmen. He can begin with by undertaking a drastic overhaul of the council of ministers. Corrupt and suspect elements must be dropped. Begin this momentous exercise by dropping Dayanidhi Maran. Chop off the deadwood. Put the right man in the right slot. P Chidambaram, despite his clipped English accent, has not exactly done well in Home. Move him elsewhere. Lighten the burden of Pranab Mukherjee so that he can concentrate on Finance rather than acting as the one-man fire fighting squad for the entire Government. Get a new man to handle parliamentary affairs, Pawan Bansal is unequal to the job and, besides, he has got tainted by the Chandigarh land scam. Induct some of the young MPs into the ministry. Promote a couple of junior ministers into responsible positions. Above all, become a hands- on prime minister, taking your own decisions instead of being ordered about by the 10 Janpath coterie. Reach out to the Opposition. Engage it for a consensus on some of the more ticklish issues such as the contents of the proposed Lokpal Bill. Revive the reforms process. Push for further structural reforms in the financial sector. Open up the retail sector. In short, get on with the urgent business of governance. Nothing will be gained by going after the critics of the Government. Instead, seek their cooperation to advance the cause of nation- building.Singh, in what is clearly his last term as Prime Minister, can still leave a worthwhile legacy if only he would break free from the shackles put on him by his party bosses. As prime minister he is accountable to the nation. And not to 10 Janpath alone.
Chandra Sekhar says:
June 19, 2011
With Rahul as PM candidate, wouldn't Congress be the single largest party if polls were to be held today.
Nilesh Shirodkar says:
June 21, 2011
Whatever survey says..Narendra Modi will be next PM. Congress glory is over!
Patriotic Indian says:
June 19, 2011
As a patriotic Indian, I do not want some Italian Amul-baby as my PM. We have over 1 billion true Indians here. As for Manmohan, a robot will make a better PM. All you need is a wooden doll with strings controlled by Italian madam Sonia.
Jignesh says:
June 19, 2011
Well Said MUSLIM BHAGAWAT. But that is never going to happen. 10 Janpath is the highest decision making body in this country as of now.
Shashikant says:
June 19, 2011
How can u publish a report on sample size of 3800 and make a judgement on 1.8 bn democracy... Is this report a joke...
R. Viswam says:
June 19, 2011
How is it that Rahul Gandhi, with no credentials whtsoever as administrator/ executive gets a thitd of any sample of voters to support him for the position of prime minister ? Is it the media support ?
Jacky says:
June 19, 2011
Very Strange, after showing that whole India is behind Narendra Modi as next PM, you r writing such an irrelevent title, India wants Rahul as Next PM,
presso says:
June 20, 2011
What!! Rahul for P.M? All the Indians must have gone nuts!!. This man has no trace of accountability. where was he when whole India hung its head in shame for CWG? where was he when billions were looted in 2g scam under his mothers leadership?? and now where is he when Jan lokpal is being side tracked?? Both he and his mother drenched in corrupt deals around them! Rahul baba being a good leader means not only eating poor mans house or lifting some bricks along with some labourer's. Being A PM means being accountable for the whole goods and bads of the country, which u r not. So if Indians really make him a P.M then they defy all the limits of foolishness!! And to be honest what would both the mother and son do if the Mighty China attacked?? Off to italy with their italian passport I guess! just as usual the "dissapearing act.
Raghu says:
June 19, 2011
2014 General Elections will answer this question.. And is this survey paid by AICC?? I don't understand why can't you take survey on Petrol Rates or Anna's Movement or 2G Scam etc..things are worst...
Rishi, Gorakhpur says:
June 19, 2011
Narendra Modi as next PM. plz make a victory in favor BJP and Modi ji.
J Verma says:
June 19, 2011
I just read your article, which I thought is quite having a sense of people of India. But some people r using your this article in a completely wrong way, just to promote themselves as good writers. You have use Title -- Rahul Gandhi over MMS, but Narendra Modi over Rahul And to find strange, on checking yahoo homepage, the article which referred u as a source says, only More & More Indians wants Rahul as next PM as survey poll says. I think this writer has completely violated rules of article writer, and it should be immediately removed from yahoo. It would be better, if they stop misleading peoples referring you as a source, & moreover giving your website a negative marketing, as u yourself check on yahoo homepage. I hope u check asap. as it is promoting negatively for your credibility.
HARISH JOSHI says:
June 21, 2011
I am pleased to see timely article on what people of nation rates future candidates for PM. Yes, Mr.Narendra Modi is leading than Rahul because the way Narendra Modi brought visible changes in Gujarat. I recollect his words before almost 14-15 years. " One should not only read history, but should be a history maker ". He has finally made history in all fronts. Shows the way to nation a real meaning of balanced development. His acceptability to even smaller idea from a smaller people make him more and more realistic and though he is badly criticized by media or a politicians, he is become more and more stronger. The people of Gujarat do love and respect him as a great leader, a great history maker.
RAJESH KUMAR SONKER says:
June 20, 2011
As per my opinion indian want to become RAHUL as PM but he says that I am studing the geography, history & polical of India as we know that Indian University became everyone GRADUATE in fiteen yrs. he became 41 yrs old still he did not well india in many ways it means he is failing again and again the exam of India how is India and how was how can they govern india government
N Pandey says:
June 19, 2011
Dear Sir, Currently I am feeling very bad for whatever is happening in our country and government biased media news. Why they publish news of no importance like non-sense lectures of Raj Thakhre, Digvijay Singh etc. If people are suffering from the malaria, these leaders say that people from other part of our country are responsible for it and the media broadcast it as they have said some "BHAGWATGEETA SHLOKAS'. Since last two weeks, I read the comments of Dijvijay Singh saying that Now, Rahul Gandhi has become perfect guy for PM of India. It was published twice. Was it a news of so much of importance that they are publishing it again and again. Instead why don't you publish the news what youths of India think.There are a lot of examples like this. 'Mood of the Nation' poll conducted by LensOnNews.com says, Between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi, 53 percent opted for the chief minister of Gujarat...But the headlines of "THE TIMES OF INDIA" is "More and more Indians want Rahul as PM: Survey"...Disgusting. According to the survey, 61 percent of the people want a change, then where is the point becoming Rahul Gandhi PM that these type of non sense news are published. If are presenting a survey's result, they present it in a perfect way for which this survey was conducted. During elections, they will do all sort of stuffs for votes.They are considered as the representatives of Youth India and also our future PM. Bt whenevr national issues like corruption(CWG,2G),black money,etc is raised by the common people,I dnt know where and why thses guy disappears.I wanted 2 hear some sensible words from them, but they disappoints me everytime. With Regards -- Naveen Kumar Pandey A Youth of India...
presso says:
June 20, 2011
What!! Rahul for P.M? All the Indians must have gone nuts!!. This man has no trace of accountability. where was he when whole India hung its head in shame for CWG? where was he when billions were looted in 2g scam under his mothers leadership?? and now where is he when Jan lokpal is being side tracked?? Both he and his mother drenched in corrupt deals around them! Rahul baba being a good leader means not only eating poor mans house or lifting some bricks along with some labourer's. Being A PM means being accountable for the whole goods and bads of the country, which u r not. So if Indians really make him a P.M then they defy all the limits of foolishness!! And to be honest what would both the mother and son do if the Mighty China attacked?? Off to italy with their italian passport I guess! just as usual the "dissapearing act.
Chandra Sekhar says:
June 19, 2011
With Rahul as PM candidate, wouldn't Congress be the single largest party if polls were to be held today.
Rahul says:
June 20, 2011
Non sense servey on Non sense topic with Non Sense Result "India wants Rahul as Next PM"
Shankar Srinivasan says:
June 20, 2011
Journalism at its poorest quality!! The author has no understanding of how sampling is to be done for such a survey, how the results are to be published and how to justify the findings...he's simply a mouthpiece of the the Congress and does a shoddy job of putting his thoughts together..Rahul has no experience of politics, has never been in a governing position ever, does not understand the dynamics of the country..
HIREN DUDHAT says:
June 20, 2011
DUS KA DUMM....... one and only MR.Narendra Modi is the best for prime minister of INDIA Jai Jai Garvi Gujarat
Hargovind says:
June 20, 2011
Mr Muslim Bhagwat perceives it as threat along with opportunity. I think he considers Narendra Modi as threat and Rahul Gandhi as opportunity. He clearly appears to be in favor of continuance of this government despite umpteen number of scams and good ups and hence he advises the UPA government to clean up its act. But no matter what Sonia and Manmohan do now, their credibility has gone down the dumps and people have seen the reality of the 'hand' that is said to be with the common man. He who is a fool will only vote for this government in the next election.
Guru patil says:
June 20, 2011
India is behind Narendra Modi as next PM,
Manjunatha says:
June 20, 2011
Its a useless & nonsense statistics. if Raul Vinci become our Prime Minister its another disaster of the Country & we will never going stand strongly after another 50 years, Because he is big fraud for the country & his mother from birth itself.
Gaurav Bajpai says:
June 20, 2011
For a leader will power is the mandatory attribute, that our pm do not have, he is not free, controlled by mrs. gandhi and that is the case with rahul gandhi too and he does not know the india in real, just visiting a disputed site like parsaul in uttar pradesh is not enough.So now only sri narendra bhai modiji is the best option and hope if he will be the pm, will be the one of best we had in india.
Indian says:
June 20, 2011
As we all know what Narendra Modi is doing for his people. He has changed the whole picture of Gujarat in few years. Today even in the extreme villege of Gujarat has 24*7 electricity. Gujarat is the only state in India with surplus electricity. Now on the contrary, what Rahul gandhi has done for India? apart from eating and sleeping with poor people. I am not against or with anybody here but just using my common sense.
vijay nair says:
June 20, 2011
Dr. Manmohan Singh has clearly demonstrated his inability to lead this nation as a Prime Minister. There is something terribly wrong in a system which allows a party president to appoint an unelected man to manage the affairs of this nation. Perhaps the time has come to question (and correct) if something is terribly wrong with the our constitution which permits this. The Prime Minister and Chief Ministers must always be a person directly elected by the people and not proxies appointed by XYZ. In a direct election leadership and the ability would determine winners and my vote at this time would undoubtedly be Narender Modi or Nitish Kumar.
Anil Sharma says:
June 21, 2011
The expected overwhelming support for Narender Modi Ji must work as a guideline for BJP leadership.But I wonder what could have been the results of the poll if the surveyors would have told the people, they were surveying, that Rahul Gandhi was caught by the US authorities with large amounts of unaccounted dollars in the United States and Vajpayee's side-kick,Brajesh Mishra had to use his influence to get him released ?Technically it is cheating if all the facts are not told about the candidates,who are being put to survey.Ignorance is a bliss but it could be disastrous also.
Indian says:
June 21, 2011
Narendra Modi is the best person to lead india.He is a proven administrator and can take india in the path of development rapidly. I dont see any other leader in this country who can take india forward. Modi for PM :)
Dr.shesh kumar jha says:
June 21, 2011
Mr.Modi is the best administrater today and very strongman.HEcannot be comparedwith Mr Rahul.
Vijay Krishnan says:
June 20, 2011
Antonia Miano's (Sonia) this dream will continue as a DREAM...! Its better to recall British rulers rather than placing him in PM's chair... Its already RESERVED for the Great Hindusthani, none other than Sri.Modiji... Sathakodi PRANAAM'S to Modiji...
suresh says:
June 20, 2011
DUS KA DUMM....... one and only MR.Narendra Modi is the best for prime minister of INDIA.He is a most dynamic leader.
Tejas Mistry says:
June 20, 2011
I want Narendra Modi as next P.M.
A.K.SHARMA says:
June 20, 2011
The expected overwhelming support for Narender Modi Ji must work as a guideline for BJP leadership.But I wonder what could have been the results of the poll if the surveyors would have told the people, they were surveying, that Rahul Gandhi was caught by the US authorities with large amounts of unaccounted dollars in the United States and Vajpayee's side-kick,Brajesh Mishra had to use his influence to get him released ?Technically it is cheating if all the facts are not told about the candidates,who are being put to survey.Ignorance is a bliss but it could be disastrous also.
Himansu says:
June 22, 2011
This type of Polls Must be banned in india. Reason- India is a country with more than 1.2 billion people and this 'www.lensonnews.com' is conducting poll among 3000-4000 people. Then giving the headline like MOOD OF THE NATION. The truth is that this website requires fund and it know the source from where to get. This poll is the result of that only and only. Shame to this 'lens on news'. It would have been more better if they have made the Headline as '100% of Congressians want Rahul as the PM'.
Daniel Kushner says:
June 23, 2011
My name is Daniel Kushner and I'm a PhD student in political science focusing on Indian politics at Brown University, who was quite interested by the poll you published on your website, and was hoping to find out some more about the methodology used. I was wondering if it would be possible to find out more about the constituencies from which you polled, and how you determined that they were representative. I was also curious about some of the more practical methods used; was this poll done by phone or in person? You also present some very interesting data about how members of certain communities felt about Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi, for example; do you happen to have data about the relative presence of SCs or STs or Muslims within your sample?
Bipin Trivedi says:
June 23, 2011
if rahul becomes the PM of india ......than it will be disastrous for country.... since he is so immature
mehul sanghv says:
June 23, 2011
dr s no comperision with nrendra modiji abt his ability but in india all election were fight on either comunism cast & other stupid things bt no one fight for devlopment peace hormony of india every party used huge amount to win election & on name of election they start corruption & ds corruption will become endless bczs dn dr is no end to it so question is how get riddof ds corruption & elect a man who only c harmony peace & devlopment 4 our country & for dt v should only see dt who cn lead our india I thin we hav go 4 somethin like president rule like amrica so v could hav chance to select our leader directly without concen of party politics & i formly bilive dt dn dr is no comperision of narendra modi
K Balakrishnan says:
August 09, 2011
@Daniel Kushner: We had covered 2 to 4 parliamentary constituencies in each state depending on the size of a state. Selection was done randomly to avoid any sample bias. The sample spread/ coverage being very small at the state level, we presented only national level findings. Survey method Q. I was also curious about some of the more practical methods used; was this poll done by phone or in person? Ans:Face to face interviews were conducted for this survey as we wanted to avoid sample bias in this survey and wanted to represent all socio-economic strata. Also, people in India are not comfortable answering sensitive political questions over phone to anonymous callers. We do conduct phone surveys when the population to be surveyed is "informed public" and the nature and number of questions to be asked fits the phone interviewing format. Such phone surveys are generally carried out only among the urban population in major cities. Q: You also present some very interesting data about how members of certain communities felt about Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi, for example; do you happen to have data about the relative presence of SCs or STs or Muslims within your sample? Ans: Of course, we have such data. In our sample, we have 13% SCs, 5% STs and 11% Muslims. This closely resembles the composition of these groups in the voter population.
surjyanarayanapanigrahi says:
July 01, 2011
Mr.Narendra Modi will be best Prime Minister.
Hasmukhlal S Joshi says:
July 04, 2011
The overall development of Gujarat can beconsider as a strong base in favour of Gujarat.The fact of able Leadership of CM Narendrabhai Modi cannot be denied evfen after Gobels propegonda.Our nation is in really need of Narendra Modi as next PM.
sohail says:
July 16, 2011
Survey refered by congi men(diggy,soniya etc),they have started the propaganda for rahul for PM candidature as NAMO is getting and will be getting more popularity.
Arvind says:
August 10, 2011
Mr.Narendra Modi is natural strong Leader not like Rahul Gandhi or Sachin Pilot (raja rajvada). He starts his life from real real Indian Mitty. He knows every Indians worry deeply also knows how to less/remove worries of common Indian. His two brothers are doing job and travel by Public Transport bus.
Mu. Agimsai Pandian says:
August 10, 2011
wow wow well done the whole over indian expecting very soon to get the PM seat to Honorable Mr. Narendra Modi when (3years back) i got 2nd son the name is Krishna Modi. the great man gentleman when he become a PM Sure our ex-President Ayya A B J Kalam Dreams all finishing well. Congress No Italy Congress on the dead line edge very soon soniya arakki send her back to italy.
Suraj Bindki says:
August 17, 2011
This is very nonsense question of comparing Mr. Rahul vs Mr. Modi. In today politics level Modi is a Bharat Ratn, who think only for our country while Rahul is playing a pure politics only for his future (dream of PM). If we want safe life of whole Indian people, then we need very strong politician like Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar and strong socialist helper like Anna and Baba Ramdevji. I Love India and indian both are more important than my life. If Rahul and Soniya promised that they do everything (Make india with corruptionless & castismless election)for country without any greedy of making PM of Rahul, I will pay my life for Rahul & Soniyaji. I want only happy India safe India corruption, caste, terrorims less India even I lost my life for these.

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