9 August, 2011: The latest State of the Nation poll published by The Hindu-CNN-IBN says that Rahul Gandhi leads the prime ministerial rankings with 19% of voters rooting for him as prime minister, three times the number he got in 2009. Is it right to conclude from this poll that Rahul Gandhi’s popularity is rapidly rising? No. It is just that the rapidly falling political stock of Manmohan Singh as prime minister has pushed up ratings for Rahul Gandhi in the survey as he is the natural heir of the dynasty controlled Congress party.

But in reality, far from becoming more popular, I would argue that Rahul Gandhi’s image is clearly on the wane. When Rahul Gandhi entered politics in 2004, there was an air of expectation about the Gandhi scion. After his mother Sonia Gandhi ‘sacrificed’ her claim to be the prime minister in 2004, Rahul Gandhi had a great opportunity to become the toast of the nation by showing his mettle in any chosen area in the Government or the party organisation. But he failed to utilise this opportunity.

Today, Rahul Gandhi only appeals to the traditional Congress voters who anyway vote for the Congress party. His 19% rating is largely because of these voters rooting for him. To be able to win national elections, a leader must appeal to a larger constituency comprising the young, educated, urban, aspirational electorate vast sections of which are not committed voters of any party. Vajpayee held such appeal for the electorate in 1998 and 1999 parliamentary elections giving a fillip to the BJP’s prospects. In 2009, many such floating voters voted for the Congress party due to the personal appeal of Manmohan Singh which helped in party’s electoral rally.

With the voters now growing impatient with Manmohan Singh’s corruption laden governance, the moot question is whether Rahul Gandhi can appeal to these voters to deliver victories to the Congress party. The answer is an emphatic no.

Rahul Gandhi has failed to impress Indian electorate with his work and words in all these years. If anything, his years in political apprenticeship have only exposed his limitations, some of which include poor articulation and public speaking skills, lack of knowledge of most complex issues and inability to prevent the party’s inexorable slide in recent Bihar and Tamil Nadu assembly elections.

Rahul has been crisscrossing the nation for many years meeting students in college campuses, visiting Dalits in their homes and addressing press conferences. His overexposure in the media has only exposed his shallow understanding of complex issues and convoluted views on issues like terror, corruption, poverty etc. His recent statement on not being able to prevent 1% of terror attacks is one such striking example. In repeatedly raising the bogey of “Hindu terrorism” (even to an incredulous American diplomat as revealed in Wikileaks cables), he has also shown that he sees all issues through a political prism and places his party’s narrow political interests over national interests.

Rahul Gandhi has exhibited most of the limitations of his mother but his mother Sonia Gandhi managed her limitations better than Rahul did. Sonia underplayed her limitations by restricting her public appearances to election meetings and speaking from written speeches.

Today, voters are not impressed with just political lineage and youth. What they look for in a leader are positive qualities that offer promise. This is a global trend. Barack Obama lacking any administrative experience swept U.S. presidential elections because he was able to convince Americans that he would usher in change.

While Rahul Gandhi may appeal to the committed Congress voters – which is what explains his moderate popularity ratings – he holds limited appeal to the uncommitted voters. In fact he represents everything that is wrong with the Congress party. Unlike his father, who in the earlier years was critical of the Congress’s style of functioning and favoured change, Rahul Gandhi seems to be intent on perpetuating everything that is wrong with the Congress party today. That being the case, how can voters who are fed up with the Congress party’s reign and corrupt ways be expected to think that Rahul has anything better to offer?

Rahul Gandhi has failed to show that he has what it takes to be a leader of the nation or at least one in the making. Being the chosen successor to his mother in the dynasty controlled party he would remain the dominant figure of the Congress party. However, given the growing unpopularity of the corruption tainted Congress party, the question of Rahul Gandhi becoming prime minister after next elections may remain a pipe dream. The only possibility for him is to become country’s prime minister by staging a political coup dethroning the incumbent Manmohan Singh. Is that process already underway? If the latest developments are any indication, perhaps yes.

What do you think? Is Rahul Gandhi gaining popularity or losing steam? 

Previously: Fading appeal of Rahul Gandhi

G V L Narasimha Rao is a noted political analyst
E-mail : nrao@lensonnews.com