Financial scarcity amid plenty - Barry Eichengreen, Mint
With interest rates at all-time lows and central banks buying everything that moves, the world is awash with credit. Yet, paradoxically, a dangerous shortage of international liquidity is putting the global economy at risk.
The war on inflation - Mint
Two simple facts define the renewed Indian inflation challenge. Consumer price inflation in May was nearly a percentage point higher than in March. And it was 76 basis points above the 5% target that the Reserve Bank of India has to meet by January 2017.
GST Bill: NDA govt in do-or-die mode - Remya Nair & Soumonty Kanungo, Mint
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is making its most determined bid to ensure fruition of the country’s biggest tax reform, the goods and services tax (GST).
Is govt cooking up economic growth data? - Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar, Times of India
Are India’s statistics just cooked up to give them a good flavour? The question has been raised by critics after the news that statistical “discrepancies” in the January-March quarter were as high as 4.8% of GDP. Critics say this casts doubt on the government claim that GDP growth was a high 7.9% in the January-March quarter, and averaged 7.6% over 2015-16 as a whole.
Reserve Bank of India’s wary eye on inflation - Mint
One of the biggest advantages of rule-based monetary policy is predictability. Most polls including the one published in this paper showed that analysts expected the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to not cut policy rates on Tuesday after having eased the repo rate by 150 basis points in the current cycle.
The way to financial inclusion - Anjini Kochar, Mint
In the mid-2000s, India embarked on an ambitious programme to ensure universal coverage of all households by financial institutions. This objective has been continued under the Prime Minister’s Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) that intends all households to have at least one savings account at a financial institution.
Populists and productivity - Nouriel Roubini, Mint
Since the global financial crisis erupted in 2008, productivity growth in the advanced economies—the US, Europe and Japan—has been very slow both in absolute terms and relative to previous decades. But this is at odds with the view, prevailing in Silicon Valley and other global technology hubs, that we are entering a golden era of innovation, which will radically increase productivity growth and improve the way we live and work. So, why haven’t those gains appeared, and what might happen if they don’t?
Markets betting on Raghuram Rajan, not RBI rate cut - Tamal Bandyopadhyay, Mint
No prizes for guessing what the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan will do when he unveils the bi-monthly monetary policy on Tuesday. At this point, the market is more interested to know whether Rajan gets an extension of his term that ends in September than when the next rate cut happens.
If Rajan exits, so will billions in investment - Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar, Times of India
The BJP’s loose cannon Subramanian Swamy has launched a scathing attack on RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, accusing him of tight money policies that have ruined Indian industry, saddled the banks with bad debts, and slowed economic growth. Many industrialists also blame their weak corporate results on Rajan, saying he has kept interest rates too high and the rupee too strong. Several prominent economists have voiced similar criticisms.
Make in India: Governance is the key - Pradeep S Mehta & Abhishek Kumar, Deccan Chronicle
In the context of a nation, organic change is always in the making. It is slow but steady, whereas sudden paradigm changes happen when either organic churning reaches the tipping point or a strong leadership takes charge. In India’s case, it is the latter that can be credited with the change we see around us these days. Take the example of “Make in India”.
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